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US Economy to Face Near-Term Slowdown

Tuesday, March 10, 2015 10:09
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U.S. Economy to Face Near-Term Slowdown – Nomura

By Sarah Benali of Kitco News; sbenali@kitco.com


Despite a strong U.S. dollar and weak peripheral economies, analysts at Nomura expect a near-term slowdown for the country’s economy. “Inclement weather conditions in the latter half of February and West Coast port disruptions due to the labor disputes will likely weigh on growth in Q1 2015,” they say in a research report. “Furthermore, the recent decline in oil prices has not materially spurred consumer spending but rather has pushed the saving rate higher,” they add. However, despite the short-term pullback, Nomura analysts expect longer term figures to improve. “[A]s these near-term shocks dissipate, we continue to expect the economy to grow near 3% in 2015 before gradually transitioning toward potential GDP (~2%) in 2016 as financial conditions tighten as a result of tighter monetary policy,” they say, adding that they expect job gains to maintain a solid pace and eventually push the unemployment rate down to 5.2% by year end. “With the year-over-year measures of our inflation forecast showing some acceleration in Q3 2015, we believe that the first rate hike will occur in September. After the first rate hike, we continue to expect the FOMC to hike at a pace of 25bp per quarter.”

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