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Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened?

Saturday, March 18, 2017 19:00
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mishtalk.com / Mike “Mish” Shedlock / March 18, 2017 3:24:13

On Friday, the FRBNY Nowcast estimate for first quarter GDP dipped from 3.2% to 2.8%.

That makes the spread between Nowcast and GDPNow 1.9 percentage points. However, that straight-up comparison is invalid for reasons discussed below.

First, let’s investigate Nowcast changes.

March 17, 2017: Highlights

  • The FRBNY Staff Nowcast stands at 2.8% for 2017:Q1 and 2.5% for 2017:Q2.
  • This week’s news had a negative impact on the nowcast, which declined 0.4 percentage point for Q1 and 0.5 percentage point for Q2.
  • Retail sales, housing and construction, and manufacturing data all had negative contributions for both quarters.

Nowcast 1st Quarter History

READ MORE

The post Gap Between Nowcast and GDPNow Narrows to 1.9 Percentage Points: Or Does It? What Happened? appeared first on Silver For The People.



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